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Machine learning price optimization for B2B quotes, explained

How win-rate curves are learned from your quotes per segment, and how they become prices your reps can send today.

What is being optimized

Price optimization picks the price that maximizes expected margin: the margin at a price multiplied by the probability of winning at that price. The machine learning part is estimating that probability, the win-rate curve, from your history. Everything else is arithmetic and policy.

The win-rate curve, with an example

For one segment and part family, the model learns how win rate falls as the price rises from list minus 8% to list plus 3%. Here is the shape it found for workshops buying deep-groove bearings at one distributor, and the price it picked.

Expected margin is margin times win rate. The engine picks the tallest bar.

Why per segment

The curve above is useless for fleets, who in the same data paid up to 4% over list when stock was short, and for OEM accounts on contract, who do not respond to price at all. The model learns one curve per segment and part family, with wider bands where history is thin. Segments come from your ERP's customer fields, and customer intelligence shows the learned tolerance per account.

From curve to a price a rep can send

The optimum on the curve is a candidate. The policy floor, ceiling and rounding apply. Stock pressure and competitor position shift it. The confidence decides whether the engine moves at all. The result is written to the quote line with its factors, in about a second. Reps at Mineral Circles Bearings send 97% of these prices unchanged.

Questions

Two years of quotes with outcomes is comfortable. With less, bands are wider and the engine stays closer to list until it has seen enough.